8-4, +7.45 UNITS in college football yesterday... Week One of the NFL season starts today, and we hope you'll join us!
WEEK ONE NFL TOP PLAYS:
New England @ Buffalo 1:00 PM EST
New England PK over Buffalo (5 Units)
New England/Buffalo Under 46 (2.5 Units)
It'll be a rematch of familiar faces when the New England Patriots open their season in Buffalo, as Drew Bledsoe has been joined by the recently released and signed Lawyer Milloy for the Bills... however, Buffalo will need much more than just two ex-Pats to turn the tide against their divisional rivals, as their head-to-head performance against New England has been anything but satisfactory over the past few seasons...
The biggest problem for Buffalo when facing the Pats has been their offense, which has scored 17 points or less in each of their last eight meetings against the Patriots, helping the Under go a perfect 8-0 in those contests... the addition of Drew Bledsoe to the squad last season did little to change their paltry output against the Pats, as Buffalo was able to manage just 24 points in a pair of double-digit losses last season against New England... and Bledsoe's former teammates certainly got the best of him in the pair of victories, intercepting their former signal-caller a whopping five times in the two outings... with Peerless Price now with the Atlanta Falcons due to free agency, Buffalo's task becomes even tougher, as Bledsoe will be missing one of his top targets against a New England secondary that is still strong despite the surprising cut of Milloy this past week...
It appears the Patriots will not sink down to Buffalo's level on offense, as their preseason output has been spectacular... in fact, the Pats were able to score at least 20 points in each of their four preseason victories, averaging a whopping 27 points in their 4-0 sweep of the exhibition season... Tom Brady has looked exceptionally sharp during this span, and when you figure in his past performances against the Bills (throwing for seven touchdowns and just one interception in four straight victories), Buffalo appears to be in some serious trouble in this contest, as past performance is a very strong indicator of future performances as well...
All in all, the Patriots have now won five straight games against the Bills, covering the spread on four of those occasions... and considering that their defense was able to hold three of their four preseason opponents to 13 points or less, the Pats appear to be in a good situation to open their season with a strong performance... with the Bills scoring just
100 total points in their last eight games against the Patriots (averaging just 12.5 ppg in that span), New England's task on offense against a Buffalo team that allowed 65 points last season alone to the Pats seems pretty achievable... with that in mind, we recommend a very large play on Tom Brady and the Patriots (along with a smaller play on the Under), as they open their season with an easy win...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 24, BUFFALO 16
Arizona @ Detroit 1:00 PM EST
Arizona +4 over Detroit (5 Units)
In the "what the heck where they smoking" department, we have a line here that makes absolutely no sense, with the Detroit Lions laying four points to the Arizona Cardinals... yes, we know that Arizona has lost Jake Plummer and David Boston during the offseason, but there is absolutely NO way the Lions should be favored by more than a field goal in this contest, considering their long-standing horror show as a favorite...
As a pick or a favorite, the Lions have gone an abysmal 4-16 ATS in their last twenty contests, with five straight losses to their credit... and considering that the Lions are now just 6-30 in their last 36 regular season contests overall (with all six victories coming by five points or less), having any faith in them as a favorite is just ludicrous... take Detroit's six
victories in that span, and add up the final margins of victory, and you'll see a Detroit squad whose winning margin was just 3.5 points per contest, meaning that even IF the Lions are able to squeak out a victory, it will likely be by no more than a field goal...
Already, each of the seven matchups between these squads since 1993 has been decided by a single score, meaning that the odds of this game going either way are very strong... and when a contest has every ability of going either way, we're likely looking at a contest that will be decided by a field goal... with four points coming Arizona's way, that's a high probability of success for the Cards, who have already exceeded expectations by going a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in the preseason due to a defense that has allowed just 13.5 points per contest... with a five game regular season winning streak against the Lions (both SU and ATS) already in their back pocket, including a victory last season that snapped a six-game losing streak at the time, the odds shift even further in Arizona's direction...
All the hoopla may be in Detroit's corner after they drafted Charlie Rogers and signed Steve Mariucci to be their coach, but bad habits do not die overnight, and as much as Detroit's offense may end up being an improved unit (assuming of course that Detroit can overcome the loss of James Stewart), their defense is what really needed an overhaul in the ffseason... you see, Detroit is not only coming off a season where they allowed 28.2 points per game to the opposition, they have now allowed 20+ points in 15 of their last 16 games, including each of their last eight games to close the 2002-03 campaign... and while the
Lions allowed 20+ points on a weekly basis, Joey Harrington and the Lions were only able to break twenty points on offense ONCE in their last ten games of the season...
Arizona may indeed turn out to be a pitiful team again this season, but if there's one situation in which they have thrived over the past several years, it's as a small underdog... not only have the Cardinals gone an exceptional 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog between zero and six points, but they have now covered five straight contests as a road dog of the same margin... in other words, whenever Arizona has a chance at pulling off a minor upset, they tend to come through in spades... don't believe the hype behind the Lions, and take full advantage of this ridiculous line, as Arizona keeps this one close enough to come through with a game-winning field goal in the closing minutes...
FINAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA 23, DETROIT 21
Oakland @ Tennessee 8:30 PM EST
Tennessee -3 over Oakland (4 Units)
They often say that the preseason should not be used to predict the regular season... however, it is very difficult to ignore the way that these two teams performed in their respective exhibition seasons, as the Tennessee Titans looked like a team geared up for a Super Bowl run while the Raiders looked like a team whose age has finally caught up to them... not only did the Titans go a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS during the exhibition season, they also scored a whopping 29 ppg in their last three contests, while holding their opposition to an average of just 12 points per game during the entire four game span... On the flipside, the Raiders failed to score more than 13 points in ANY of their four exhibition contests, and have been outscored by a 141-57 margin since the Super Bowl... while we understand that Coach Callahan was protecting his starters throughout the majority of the preseason, the fact is that the Raiders are yet another year closer to the retirement home, and will likely show some rust as well due to the inactivity over the exhibition season...
Toss in the fact that Tennessee will be seeking some serious revenge in this grudge match against the team that kept them from making the Super Bowl, and we have plenty of reasons to believe that Tennessee will continue to be focused and driven in this contest, while Oakland may still be feeling the lingering effects of their Super Bowl humiliation...
Tennessee has thrived in contests that have been expected to be close, going an exceptional 9-1 SU/ATS in their last ten games where the line was set at three points or less either way... at home with the same spread, the Titans have not only won 20 of their 26 games since 1995 straight up, they have also gone an exceptional 19-6-1 ATS in those contests... Oakland, on the other hand, has now gone just 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games where the line was set at three points or less either way, denoting a team that is no longer getting the job done against equivalent competition...
The Titans are already 24-8 straight up in their 32 contests at The Coliseum, and with a point spread of just three, this appears to be a number that Tennessee should be able to cover, especially with the knowledge that each of their last 13 home victories (as well as 24 of their last 25) have come by at least that margin... Lost in Oakland's whalloping of the Titans the past two seasons is that both of those games came in Oakland and were helped along by special teams TDs to help pad the final score... in Tennessee, the Titans are a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS against Oakland since 1997, and the home team in this series is now 6-1 SU in the last seven contests between these two (as well as 5-1 ATS)... with that in mind, and with the knowledge that the Titans are the better team right now, we're taking Tennessee to extract a nice level of revenge against their Silver and Black tormentors...
FINAL PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 27, OAKLAND 17
Houston @ Miami 1:00 PM EST
Miami -14 over Houston (3.5 Units)
It's always a difficult proposition backing a team when they are laying two touchdowns against their opposition, but in the case of the Miami Dolphins, the task becomes much easier, especially against a Houston Texans squad that is still seeking any type of consistency on offense... this preseason has shown Houston's offense to be just as impotent as last season's, as the Texans have scored a total of just 38 points in four exhibition games... against a defense that allowed an AFC-low 301 last season, and a team that is an amazing 20-0-1 ATS in their last 21 straight up wins (as well as 52-5-2 ATS in their last 59 contests), even getting 14 points here doesn't quite seem enough, especially considering that the Dolphins are 17-0 in September and 29-4 in season openers (including 11 straight wins)...
The Dolphins have now scored 23+ points in seven of their last eight home games (with the sole exception being their first game last season without Jay Fiedler), and have shut down opposing offenses to the tune of just 11.1 ppg in their last twelve regular season home contests... much like the fusing of peanut butter and chocolate, the combination of clutch offense and timely defense has made the Dolphins one of the best home favorites in all of pro sports, as they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 as a home fav, including 5-0-1 ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown... in fact, 11 of Miami's last 13 home victories have come by double-digit margins, and last season, the Dolphins won each of their seven home victories by a gaudy average of 19.7 ppg... toss in the fact that Houston has had some serious difficulty scoring points on the road, as evidenced by the fact that they have scored ten points or less in three of their last four road tilts... and while Miami almost inevitably covers the spread when winning a contest straight up, the Texans are a miserable 3-8-1 ATS when losing a contest straight up, exposing themselves as a team that goes down easily once the chips start falling the other team's way... considering Miami's killer instinct at home, we're expecting this game to be decided pretty early on, with the end result being an easy Miami victory that covers even this most gaudiest of lines...
FINAL PREDICTION: MIAMI 27, HOUSTON 3
Denver @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati +6 over Denver (3 Units)
Cincinnati/Denver Over 43.5 (3.5 Units)
The Marvin Lewis era begins in Cincinnati, and that means new hope for a Bengals team that has long been renowned for their apt "Bungles" nickname... it's not that the Bengals have not has talent on their side, as skill players like Corey Dillon (with six straight 1,000 yard seasons) and Chad Johnson (69 receptions, 1,169 receiving yards last season) have more than enough talent to quickly push the Bengals from pretender to contender... however, Cincy has long lacked a leader, and in getting the long-overlooked Lewis as their coach, the Bengals should start turning the corner this season...
We believe that turnaround begins in week one of this NFL season, as the Broncos have been a very weak road team over the past couple of seasons, with their defense coming up short immensely, allowing a whopping 25.5 ppg in their last 15 games... and with a 3-11-1 ATS record in those contests, we have a very difficult time backing them when they are giving a fairly talented Cincy squad nearly a touchdown's worth of points... it's not as if the Bengals have had trouble scoring against the Broncos in the past, as Cincy has scored 20, 26, and 31 points in their last three contests against Denver, with their output increasing in each subsequent outing... in fact, their last meeting with Denver was a record-setting one, as Corey Dillon broke Walter Payton's single-game rushing record with a 278 yard performance in a 31-21 win as 10.5-points underdogs... That victory marked Cincy's second straight covering effort against the Broncos, and considering that Denver has only outscored the Bengals by one point in the last three meetings between these two in Cincy, a six-point spread seems a little generous from the Vegas oddsmakers...
Corey Dillon is not the only playmaker on the Bengals to have a terrific performance in his last outing against Denver, as quarterback Jon Kitna tore apart the Denver secondary for 298 yards and three TDs in his last performance against the Broncos (in December of 2000 with the Seahawks)... and if both Dillon and Kitna can come up with anything close to those performances, the Bengals should have a nice little coming out party to open their 2003 campaign... Cincy has actually shown some serious signs of competing this preseason, outgaining their opponents by a 1,485-971 margin during the exhibition
season, despite going just 1-3 in those contests (albeit with two losses coming by one score)... and with Denver a terrible 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite, it appears the window of opportunity is clear and present for the Bengals in this contest to come up with the shocker...
The Over is already 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams, with the lowest combined output being 52 points, a number that easily dwarfs the 43.5 point total that has been set in this contest... and considering that the winning team has scored at least 31 points in each of the last three matchups between these squads (with the home team covering each contest), we appear to have some very solid trends that support both the home team and a high-scoring contest... with that in mind, take the Bengals and the Broncos, as their respective 2003 openers should be a very entertaining affair that very well may result in the shocking upset...
FINAL PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 31, DENVER 27
Jacksonville @ Carolina 1:00 PM EST
Carolina -4 over Jacksonville (3 Units)
Jacksonville and Carolina both came into the NFL as expansion teams the same season, and while both teams have had their ups and downs, it appears they are right back where they started, with low expectations due to a dearth of talent on the offensive side of the ball... both Rodney Peete and Mark Brunell were successful in retaining their starting positions after open competitions in the preseason which saw both QBs be tested by their younger backups... however, there is one facet in which the Panthers have upgraded over the Jaguars in the offseason, and that is with their other skill players on offense...
for while Jacksonville stayed relatively quiet in the offseason and must now start their season without Jimmy Smith (leaving castoffs such as J.J. Stokes and Matthew Hatchette as their starting receiver tandem), the Panthers made a terrific move in acquiring workhorse running back Stephen Davis to pair with Lamar Smith for a double-headed battering ram at running back... toss in the additional acquisition of steady Ricky Proehl as their third receiver, and Peete has many more weapons with which to work with this season... the improvement on offense was apparent during the preseason, as the Panthers were able to score 20+ points in each of their four outings to go a perfect 4-0 during the exhibition season...
While preseason games are ultimately pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things, it is worth noting that the Panthers have now won eight of their last nine games overall, after rattling off a 4-1 finish last season... and considering that Carolina's defense, ranked second in the NFL last season, seems to have picked up right where they left off (allowing just 31 total points in four preseason games), the improved options on offense should help the Panthers compete for a potential playoff spot this season, despite most "expert" predictions...
The Jaguars have proven to be ill-prepared on the road against strong defensive teams the last couple of seasons, scoring just 54 total points against the Colts, Giants, Ravens and Titans last season, and 17 points or less 10 times in their last 16 contests (with exceptions coming against bottom-feeders like Cincy, Dallas, and Houston last season, and Minnesota and Tennessee the year before)... as September road dogs, the Jags are just 2-4-1 ATS, and Jacksonville is just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games against teams at .500 or better... yes, Carolina does not have any record to speak for this season, but
their 8-1 SU mark in their last nine games overall has us more of the belief that they are closer to being a winning squad than most might think...
Carolina was very solid when favored last season, picking up victories and covers in three of the four occasions where they were laying points, and outscoring those opponents by a combined 120-68 margin... and while Jacksonville has won four straight games in this series, giving us slight pause to back the Panthers, the last time these two met was in 2001 - since that time, Jacksonville's talent level has decreased, while Carolina has turned into a defensive monster... therefore, take the Panthers and lay the points, as Carolina should be able to take this contest by a touchdown or more...
FINAL PREDICTION: CAROLINA 20, JACKSONVILLE 13
New Orleans @ Seattle 4:15 PM EST
New Orleans +3 over Seattle (2 Units)
New Orleans/Seattle Over 48 (3 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
SEA 2-10 SU in season openers at home
SEA 7-20 SU in season openers
NO 4-1 SU/ATS as dog
SEA averaging 29 ppg in L6 regular season contests
NO allowed 20+ points in 14 of L15 on road (including L8)
NO allowing 25.7 ppg on road in L15
NO starting safety Mel Mitchell and linebacker Derrick Rodgers OUT
SEA Shawn Springs OUT
Minnesota @ Green Bay 1:00 PM EST
Minnesota +5 over Green Bay (1 Unit)
Minnesota/Green Bay Over 47 (2.5 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
MINN 4-0 ATS vs GB
MINN 6-2 ATS as road dog >3...
MINN allowing 31.9 ppg in L19 on road
GB allowed 20+ points in all four games this preseason (24.8 ppg)
GB scored 23+ points in L5 @ home vs MIN
5-0 OV in series
underdog 7-0 ATS in series
WEEK ONE REMAINING PLAYS (no analysis):
St Louis @ NY Giants 1:00 PM EST
NY Giants PK over St Louis (2 Units)
NY Giants/St Louis Under 46.5 (1 Unit)
Indianapolis @ Cleveland 1:00 PM EST
Cleveland/Indianapolis Over 46 (2 Units)
Chicago @ San Francisco 4:15 PM EST
Chicago +6.5 over San Francisco (1 Unit)
THANKS FOR LOOKING AND GOOD LUCK!
WEEK ONE NFL TOP PLAYS:
New England @ Buffalo 1:00 PM EST
New England PK over Buffalo (5 Units)
New England/Buffalo Under 46 (2.5 Units)
It'll be a rematch of familiar faces when the New England Patriots open their season in Buffalo, as Drew Bledsoe has been joined by the recently released and signed Lawyer Milloy for the Bills... however, Buffalo will need much more than just two ex-Pats to turn the tide against their divisional rivals, as their head-to-head performance against New England has been anything but satisfactory over the past few seasons...
The biggest problem for Buffalo when facing the Pats has been their offense, which has scored 17 points or less in each of their last eight meetings against the Patriots, helping the Under go a perfect 8-0 in those contests... the addition of Drew Bledsoe to the squad last season did little to change their paltry output against the Pats, as Buffalo was able to manage just 24 points in a pair of double-digit losses last season against New England... and Bledsoe's former teammates certainly got the best of him in the pair of victories, intercepting their former signal-caller a whopping five times in the two outings... with Peerless Price now with the Atlanta Falcons due to free agency, Buffalo's task becomes even tougher, as Bledsoe will be missing one of his top targets against a New England secondary that is still strong despite the surprising cut of Milloy this past week...
It appears the Patriots will not sink down to Buffalo's level on offense, as their preseason output has been spectacular... in fact, the Pats were able to score at least 20 points in each of their four preseason victories, averaging a whopping 27 points in their 4-0 sweep of the exhibition season... Tom Brady has looked exceptionally sharp during this span, and when you figure in his past performances against the Bills (throwing for seven touchdowns and just one interception in four straight victories), Buffalo appears to be in some serious trouble in this contest, as past performance is a very strong indicator of future performances as well...
All in all, the Patriots have now won five straight games against the Bills, covering the spread on four of those occasions... and considering that their defense was able to hold three of their four preseason opponents to 13 points or less, the Pats appear to be in a good situation to open their season with a strong performance... with the Bills scoring just
100 total points in their last eight games against the Patriots (averaging just 12.5 ppg in that span), New England's task on offense against a Buffalo team that allowed 65 points last season alone to the Pats seems pretty achievable... with that in mind, we recommend a very large play on Tom Brady and the Patriots (along with a smaller play on the Under), as they open their season with an easy win...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 24, BUFFALO 16
Arizona @ Detroit 1:00 PM EST
Arizona +4 over Detroit (5 Units)
In the "what the heck where they smoking" department, we have a line here that makes absolutely no sense, with the Detroit Lions laying four points to the Arizona Cardinals... yes, we know that Arizona has lost Jake Plummer and David Boston during the offseason, but there is absolutely NO way the Lions should be favored by more than a field goal in this contest, considering their long-standing horror show as a favorite...
As a pick or a favorite, the Lions have gone an abysmal 4-16 ATS in their last twenty contests, with five straight losses to their credit... and considering that the Lions are now just 6-30 in their last 36 regular season contests overall (with all six victories coming by five points or less), having any faith in them as a favorite is just ludicrous... take Detroit's six
victories in that span, and add up the final margins of victory, and you'll see a Detroit squad whose winning margin was just 3.5 points per contest, meaning that even IF the Lions are able to squeak out a victory, it will likely be by no more than a field goal...
Already, each of the seven matchups between these squads since 1993 has been decided by a single score, meaning that the odds of this game going either way are very strong... and when a contest has every ability of going either way, we're likely looking at a contest that will be decided by a field goal... with four points coming Arizona's way, that's a high probability of success for the Cards, who have already exceeded expectations by going a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in the preseason due to a defense that has allowed just 13.5 points per contest... with a five game regular season winning streak against the Lions (both SU and ATS) already in their back pocket, including a victory last season that snapped a six-game losing streak at the time, the odds shift even further in Arizona's direction...
All the hoopla may be in Detroit's corner after they drafted Charlie Rogers and signed Steve Mariucci to be their coach, but bad habits do not die overnight, and as much as Detroit's offense may end up being an improved unit (assuming of course that Detroit can overcome the loss of James Stewart), their defense is what really needed an overhaul in the ffseason... you see, Detroit is not only coming off a season where they allowed 28.2 points per game to the opposition, they have now allowed 20+ points in 15 of their last 16 games, including each of their last eight games to close the 2002-03 campaign... and while the
Lions allowed 20+ points on a weekly basis, Joey Harrington and the Lions were only able to break twenty points on offense ONCE in their last ten games of the season...
Arizona may indeed turn out to be a pitiful team again this season, but if there's one situation in which they have thrived over the past several years, it's as a small underdog... not only have the Cardinals gone an exceptional 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog between zero and six points, but they have now covered five straight contests as a road dog of the same margin... in other words, whenever Arizona has a chance at pulling off a minor upset, they tend to come through in spades... don't believe the hype behind the Lions, and take full advantage of this ridiculous line, as Arizona keeps this one close enough to come through with a game-winning field goal in the closing minutes...
FINAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA 23, DETROIT 21
Oakland @ Tennessee 8:30 PM EST
Tennessee -3 over Oakland (4 Units)
They often say that the preseason should not be used to predict the regular season... however, it is very difficult to ignore the way that these two teams performed in their respective exhibition seasons, as the Tennessee Titans looked like a team geared up for a Super Bowl run while the Raiders looked like a team whose age has finally caught up to them... not only did the Titans go a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS during the exhibition season, they also scored a whopping 29 ppg in their last three contests, while holding their opposition to an average of just 12 points per game during the entire four game span... On the flipside, the Raiders failed to score more than 13 points in ANY of their four exhibition contests, and have been outscored by a 141-57 margin since the Super Bowl... while we understand that Coach Callahan was protecting his starters throughout the majority of the preseason, the fact is that the Raiders are yet another year closer to the retirement home, and will likely show some rust as well due to the inactivity over the exhibition season...
Toss in the fact that Tennessee will be seeking some serious revenge in this grudge match against the team that kept them from making the Super Bowl, and we have plenty of reasons to believe that Tennessee will continue to be focused and driven in this contest, while Oakland may still be feeling the lingering effects of their Super Bowl humiliation...
Tennessee has thrived in contests that have been expected to be close, going an exceptional 9-1 SU/ATS in their last ten games where the line was set at three points or less either way... at home with the same spread, the Titans have not only won 20 of their 26 games since 1995 straight up, they have also gone an exceptional 19-6-1 ATS in those contests... Oakland, on the other hand, has now gone just 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games where the line was set at three points or less either way, denoting a team that is no longer getting the job done against equivalent competition...
The Titans are already 24-8 straight up in their 32 contests at The Coliseum, and with a point spread of just three, this appears to be a number that Tennessee should be able to cover, especially with the knowledge that each of their last 13 home victories (as well as 24 of their last 25) have come by at least that margin... Lost in Oakland's whalloping of the Titans the past two seasons is that both of those games came in Oakland and were helped along by special teams TDs to help pad the final score... in Tennessee, the Titans are a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS against Oakland since 1997, and the home team in this series is now 6-1 SU in the last seven contests between these two (as well as 5-1 ATS)... with that in mind, and with the knowledge that the Titans are the better team right now, we're taking Tennessee to extract a nice level of revenge against their Silver and Black tormentors...
FINAL PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 27, OAKLAND 17
Houston @ Miami 1:00 PM EST
Miami -14 over Houston (3.5 Units)
It's always a difficult proposition backing a team when they are laying two touchdowns against their opposition, but in the case of the Miami Dolphins, the task becomes much easier, especially against a Houston Texans squad that is still seeking any type of consistency on offense... this preseason has shown Houston's offense to be just as impotent as last season's, as the Texans have scored a total of just 38 points in four exhibition games... against a defense that allowed an AFC-low 301 last season, and a team that is an amazing 20-0-1 ATS in their last 21 straight up wins (as well as 52-5-2 ATS in their last 59 contests), even getting 14 points here doesn't quite seem enough, especially considering that the Dolphins are 17-0 in September and 29-4 in season openers (including 11 straight wins)...
The Dolphins have now scored 23+ points in seven of their last eight home games (with the sole exception being their first game last season without Jay Fiedler), and have shut down opposing offenses to the tune of just 11.1 ppg in their last twelve regular season home contests... much like the fusing of peanut butter and chocolate, the combination of clutch offense and timely defense has made the Dolphins one of the best home favorites in all of pro sports, as they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 as a home fav, including 5-0-1 ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown... in fact, 11 of Miami's last 13 home victories have come by double-digit margins, and last season, the Dolphins won each of their seven home victories by a gaudy average of 19.7 ppg... toss in the fact that Houston has had some serious difficulty scoring points on the road, as evidenced by the fact that they have scored ten points or less in three of their last four road tilts... and while Miami almost inevitably covers the spread when winning a contest straight up, the Texans are a miserable 3-8-1 ATS when losing a contest straight up, exposing themselves as a team that goes down easily once the chips start falling the other team's way... considering Miami's killer instinct at home, we're expecting this game to be decided pretty early on, with the end result being an easy Miami victory that covers even this most gaudiest of lines...
FINAL PREDICTION: MIAMI 27, HOUSTON 3
Denver @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati +6 over Denver (3 Units)
Cincinnati/Denver Over 43.5 (3.5 Units)
The Marvin Lewis era begins in Cincinnati, and that means new hope for a Bengals team that has long been renowned for their apt "Bungles" nickname... it's not that the Bengals have not has talent on their side, as skill players like Corey Dillon (with six straight 1,000 yard seasons) and Chad Johnson (69 receptions, 1,169 receiving yards last season) have more than enough talent to quickly push the Bengals from pretender to contender... however, Cincy has long lacked a leader, and in getting the long-overlooked Lewis as their coach, the Bengals should start turning the corner this season...
We believe that turnaround begins in week one of this NFL season, as the Broncos have been a very weak road team over the past couple of seasons, with their defense coming up short immensely, allowing a whopping 25.5 ppg in their last 15 games... and with a 3-11-1 ATS record in those contests, we have a very difficult time backing them when they are giving a fairly talented Cincy squad nearly a touchdown's worth of points... it's not as if the Bengals have had trouble scoring against the Broncos in the past, as Cincy has scored 20, 26, and 31 points in their last three contests against Denver, with their output increasing in each subsequent outing... in fact, their last meeting with Denver was a record-setting one, as Corey Dillon broke Walter Payton's single-game rushing record with a 278 yard performance in a 31-21 win as 10.5-points underdogs... That victory marked Cincy's second straight covering effort against the Broncos, and considering that Denver has only outscored the Bengals by one point in the last three meetings between these two in Cincy, a six-point spread seems a little generous from the Vegas oddsmakers...
Corey Dillon is not the only playmaker on the Bengals to have a terrific performance in his last outing against Denver, as quarterback Jon Kitna tore apart the Denver secondary for 298 yards and three TDs in his last performance against the Broncos (in December of 2000 with the Seahawks)... and if both Dillon and Kitna can come up with anything close to those performances, the Bengals should have a nice little coming out party to open their 2003 campaign... Cincy has actually shown some serious signs of competing this preseason, outgaining their opponents by a 1,485-971 margin during the exhibition
season, despite going just 1-3 in those contests (albeit with two losses coming by one score)... and with Denver a terrible 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite, it appears the window of opportunity is clear and present for the Bengals in this contest to come up with the shocker...
The Over is already 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams, with the lowest combined output being 52 points, a number that easily dwarfs the 43.5 point total that has been set in this contest... and considering that the winning team has scored at least 31 points in each of the last three matchups between these squads (with the home team covering each contest), we appear to have some very solid trends that support both the home team and a high-scoring contest... with that in mind, take the Bengals and the Broncos, as their respective 2003 openers should be a very entertaining affair that very well may result in the shocking upset...
FINAL PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 31, DENVER 27
Jacksonville @ Carolina 1:00 PM EST
Carolina -4 over Jacksonville (3 Units)
Jacksonville and Carolina both came into the NFL as expansion teams the same season, and while both teams have had their ups and downs, it appears they are right back where they started, with low expectations due to a dearth of talent on the offensive side of the ball... both Rodney Peete and Mark Brunell were successful in retaining their starting positions after open competitions in the preseason which saw both QBs be tested by their younger backups... however, there is one facet in which the Panthers have upgraded over the Jaguars in the offseason, and that is with their other skill players on offense...
for while Jacksonville stayed relatively quiet in the offseason and must now start their season without Jimmy Smith (leaving castoffs such as J.J. Stokes and Matthew Hatchette as their starting receiver tandem), the Panthers made a terrific move in acquiring workhorse running back Stephen Davis to pair with Lamar Smith for a double-headed battering ram at running back... toss in the additional acquisition of steady Ricky Proehl as their third receiver, and Peete has many more weapons with which to work with this season... the improvement on offense was apparent during the preseason, as the Panthers were able to score 20+ points in each of their four outings to go a perfect 4-0 during the exhibition season...
While preseason games are ultimately pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things, it is worth noting that the Panthers have now won eight of their last nine games overall, after rattling off a 4-1 finish last season... and considering that Carolina's defense, ranked second in the NFL last season, seems to have picked up right where they left off (allowing just 31 total points in four preseason games), the improved options on offense should help the Panthers compete for a potential playoff spot this season, despite most "expert" predictions...
The Jaguars have proven to be ill-prepared on the road against strong defensive teams the last couple of seasons, scoring just 54 total points against the Colts, Giants, Ravens and Titans last season, and 17 points or less 10 times in their last 16 contests (with exceptions coming against bottom-feeders like Cincy, Dallas, and Houston last season, and Minnesota and Tennessee the year before)... as September road dogs, the Jags are just 2-4-1 ATS, and Jacksonville is just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games against teams at .500 or better... yes, Carolina does not have any record to speak for this season, but
their 8-1 SU mark in their last nine games overall has us more of the belief that they are closer to being a winning squad than most might think...
Carolina was very solid when favored last season, picking up victories and covers in three of the four occasions where they were laying points, and outscoring those opponents by a combined 120-68 margin... and while Jacksonville has won four straight games in this series, giving us slight pause to back the Panthers, the last time these two met was in 2001 - since that time, Jacksonville's talent level has decreased, while Carolina has turned into a defensive monster... therefore, take the Panthers and lay the points, as Carolina should be able to take this contest by a touchdown or more...
FINAL PREDICTION: CAROLINA 20, JACKSONVILLE 13
New Orleans @ Seattle 4:15 PM EST
New Orleans +3 over Seattle (2 Units)
New Orleans/Seattle Over 48 (3 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
SEA 2-10 SU in season openers at home
SEA 7-20 SU in season openers
NO 4-1 SU/ATS as dog
SEA averaging 29 ppg in L6 regular season contests
NO allowed 20+ points in 14 of L15 on road (including L8)
NO allowing 25.7 ppg on road in L15
NO starting safety Mel Mitchell and linebacker Derrick Rodgers OUT
SEA Shawn Springs OUT
Minnesota @ Green Bay 1:00 PM EST
Minnesota +5 over Green Bay (1 Unit)
Minnesota/Green Bay Over 47 (2.5 Units)
KEY TRENDS:
MINN 4-0 ATS vs GB
MINN 6-2 ATS as road dog >3...
MINN allowing 31.9 ppg in L19 on road
GB allowed 20+ points in all four games this preseason (24.8 ppg)
GB scored 23+ points in L5 @ home vs MIN
5-0 OV in series
underdog 7-0 ATS in series
WEEK ONE REMAINING PLAYS (no analysis):
St Louis @ NY Giants 1:00 PM EST
NY Giants PK over St Louis (2 Units)
NY Giants/St Louis Under 46.5 (1 Unit)
Indianapolis @ Cleveland 1:00 PM EST
Cleveland/Indianapolis Over 46 (2 Units)
Chicago @ San Francisco 4:15 PM EST
Chicago +6.5 over San Francisco (1 Unit)
THANKS FOR LOOKING AND GOOD LUCK!
